TrendForce Expects Laptop Shipments to Fall in 2027 as Memory and CPU Costs Rise
CPU, DRAM and SSD now make up about 68 percent of a $900 laptop's component cost, and TrendForce says brands cannot hold price, specs and margins all at once.
TrendForce expects global notebook shipments to fall by a low-single-digit percentage in 2027, and warns the drop could reach the high-single-digit range if DRAM and CPU prices stay high. The market researcher published the outlook on October 8, saying the main threat to laptop demand is shifting from scarce supply to costs that push buyers away (TrendForce, Evertiq).
The forecast
TrendForce does not describe 2026 as a recovery. It credits this year's shipments to better processor availability, early purchasing by brands and replacement demand pulled forward from later periods. Because some purchases expected in late 2026 and beyond have already happened, replacement momentum is likely to weaken next year. That fits the weak third quarter, when worldwide PC shipments fell about 20 percent from a year earlier, according to IDC.
| TrendForce outlook | Detail |
|---|---|
| 2027 base case | Low-single-digit decline in notebook shipments |
| Downside | High-single-digit decline if DRAM and CPU prices stay high and are passed on |
| Cost share, $900 mainstream laptop (Q3 2026) | CPU, DRAM and SSD about 68% of the bill of materials |
| DRAM | Tight through 2027 as AI servers absorb capacity |
| NAND flash | Constraints could ease in the second half of 2027 |
| Production outside China | About 24% in 2025, 21% in 2026, possibly below 20% in 2027 |
The 68 percent figure applies to that specific $900 example, not to every laptop. Printed circuit boards, multilayer ceramic capacitors and power management chips are also under pressure from capacity allocation, raw material costs and geopolitics.
Three choices for laptop brands
TrendForce lays out the options: raise retail prices and accept weaker demand, absorb the cost and see margins shrink, or trim specifications such as memory and weaken products against rivals. It considers it unlikely any brand can hold prices, specifications and profit all at once in 2027 (iThinkDiff). For shoppers, that points to laptops that either cost more or ship with less, and to replacement cycles that stretch as people keep their current machines.
Production is also shifting back toward China as higher costs push some capacity there, reversing a few years of diversification.
What it means for buyers
TrendForce gives no price forecasts for individual machines, but names memory as the main cost risk, so models with large amounts of memory are most exposed. Businesses face the same pressure at scale: with CPU, DRAM and SSD taking about two-thirds of a mainstream laptop's component cost, even modest memory price rises have an outsized effect, and refresh budgets set earlier may buy fewer machines. The report is a global outlook and gives no India-specific figures.
What to watch next
Quarterly DRAM and NAND contract prices, fourth-quarter shipment tallies due in January, and how brands price their spring 2027 models.
